đź§ Read time: 4 min
Let’s be real:
Most startup decks butcher market sizing.
It’s either 🧚 inflated nonsense (“$1T+ market!”) or 🤷‍♂️ a forgotten slide thrown in last minute with a pie chart from Statista.
But here’s the truth:
Get this slide right, and it can raise you millions. Get it wrong, and it screams “rookie”.
So today, I’m breaking down exactly how to nail your TAM / SAM / SOM with maximum signal .
This is the kind of post you’ll come back to before every raise.
Save it.
💡 What is TAM / SAM / SOM? Forget the acronyms for a sec. Here’s the real-world breakdown:
TAM : Total Addressable Market = How big the entire market could be if you took it all.SAM : Serviceable Available Market = What % of that market you could realistically serve today.SOM : Serviceable Obtainable Market = What you can actually win with your current resources, product, and team.Hot take: TAM is theory. SOM is what gets you funded.
đź§ Founders love big TAMs. Investors love believable SOMs.
Let’s say you’re building a new platform for short-term rentals:
TAM : 1.9B global bookings per year (Airbnb-level)SAM : 532M bookings in your key markets, on digital platformsSOM : 10.6M bookings = what you realistically aim to captureThis is pulled straight from Airbnb’s legendary pitch deck .
Why it works: They didn’t just say “huge market.” They said, “Here’s how we eat a piece of it, and how fast.”
🔢 Three ways to calculate it (choose one that works for you): 1. Bottom-up (strongest) Start with actual numbers: → # of potential customers × avg. annual spend = TAM
Way more accurate than top-down. Investors love this.
2. Value Theory If you're inventing something new: → How much would someone pay to solve this problem?
Think Spotify vs CDs. You’re pricing based on pain relief, not precedent.
3. Top-down (meh) Find a big stat and carve out a slice. → Use only if you don’t have better data, and always cite your source.
Example in fast food:
🎯 Bonus concept: Earlyvangelists They’re not your full market. They’re your beachhead.
→ The people who are feeling the pain the most . Your first customers, innovators & early adopters. They are quite easy to convince… They settle for a product that is not yet finished and therefore not perfect.
Find them, serve them well, and your beachhead strategy compounds.
→ The early majority, late majority, and the laggards on the other hand expect your product or service to be ready to use or deploy.
💸 TAM → ROI: The investor lens Your job isn’t just to show a big market. It’s to rapidly cross the Chasm and show how that market turns into a fat return .
Here’s how the math might play out:
SOM = €5M revenue in 2 years EBITDA margin = 25% Valuation = 8x EBITDA = €10M If investor owns 20%, they 8x their investment. If you scale to €12M revenue, that ROI jumps to 19.2x.
Simple story. Clear math. Real upside.
🧩 TL;DR → What a good TAM/SAM/SOM slide includes: ✅ Clear bottom-up numbers ✅ A believable SOM (beachhead) ✅ Real customers in mind, not just market stats ✅ Bonus points: show how your SOM scales over time
🛠️ Want a template? I built this canvas for you: 👉 The TAM/SAM/SOM Template
It plugs into your pitch deck. No fluff. All signal.
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